Sports

2009 NFL Playoffs Week 1 Preview: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys, Part III

The Philadelphia Eagles could conceivably beat the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs, but I seriously doubt it. The Dallas Cowboys are just the better team right now.

The Philadelphia Eagles have endured some injuries this season, but that isn’t an excuse. No team is perfectly healthy at this time of year. No, the Philadelphia Eagles problems are much deeper than that. Not only aren’t they as talented as the Dallas Cowboys, they also don’t match up well against them. The Dallas Cowboys regular season sweep seemed to confirm that assertion.

The first game in November was a close 20-16 Dallas Cowboys win. The rematch last week in Dallas wasn’t so close. That 24-0 butt-kicking exposed everything that is wrong with this Philadelphia Eagles team. They weren’t big enough along the line of scrimmage, their star players didn’t come through in the clutch and they were completely outcoached. Other than that, how did you enjoy the play Mrs. Lincoln?

The Philadelphia Eagles faithful have nothing but blind hope to go on now. Those who say that it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season are simply wrong. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have been 19 times when a team went into a playoff game with a chance to complete a three-game season sweep. Those teams completed the sweep in 12 of the 19 games. That’s a 63% winning percentage. However, the Dallas Cowboys have lost twice in the playoffs after beating a team twice during the regular season. In 1998 the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals, 20-7 in the playoffs and in 2007 they lost to the New York Giants 21-17 in the playoffs. That helps explain why the Dallas Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996.

While all those stats are nice, they mean nothing to this particular match-up. The stat that really stands out to me in this playoff match-up is the one that says that the Philadelphia Eagles have scored only one touchdown in 21 offensive possessions in the two games this season against the Dallas Cowboys. That is just pathetic.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense is ranked 11th overall, but a lowly 22nd in rushing. That is due to a combination of Andy Reid not running the ball and the running backs not doing a great job with those limited chances. Over the last four games the Eagles runningbacks have only averaged 3.5 yards per carry. That number isn’t big enough for Reid to stick with the run, in spite of the mountain of statistical evidence that even this Philadelphia Eagles team is much better when they have a balanced offense. I personally think Brian Westbrook looked slow hitting the hole last week, but maybe he’s still trying to get his game back after missing so much time this season. LeSean McCoy seems to have hit the dreaded “rookie wall” hard. And even though “Nobody can stop the Weave”, Reid only gave Leonard Weaver one carry last week. Do that again and it will be a brief playoff appearance for the our Philadelphia Eagles.

The Philadelphia Eagles passing offense was very good this season, but it relied too much on quick-strike TDs. That’s one of the areas where the Eagles don’t matchup well with the Dallas Cowboys. McNabb has never been accused of being an overly accurate passer, but he does have a big arm. That enables him to get the ball deep to wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin for long TDs. The Dallas Cowboys, though, have been able to effectively take the long ball away from the Philadelphia Eagles so far this season. After scoring eight TDs of over 35 yards during the regular season, Jackson was held to only five catches for 76 yards in two games against the Dallas Cowboys this season. Cowboys cornerback, Mike Jenkins, talked some smack and backed it up last week. To make matters worse, Jackson aggravated a groin injury. So would that be adding insult to injury, or adding injury to insult? Nevermind. Without much of a running game, the Philadelphia Eagles are not able to sustain long drives, which explains that one TD in 21 possessions against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Donovan McNabb are going to have to take what the Dallas Cowboys give them if they hope to score many points. I’m not sure if McNabb has it in him, but his future in Philadelphia could very well depend on it. Tight end Brent Celek had 7 catches for 96 yards last week against the Dallas Cowboys and will need a repeat performance. The Philadelphia Eagles should also rediscover Weaver in the passing game.

Of course, none of that matters if the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line can’t protect Donovan McNabb and open up a hole every once in a while for the running game. The O-line also has five false start penalties since Nick Cole took over at center for the injured Jamaal Jackson. They did a nice job on All-Pro NT Jay Ratliff and DE DeMarcus Ware last week, but Anthony Spencer abused Eagles RT Winston Justice.

Tony Romo has never won a playoff game because he always made too many mistakes. This season he has turned that all around. He had 26 TDs and 9 INTs during the regular season, including 11 TDs and only 1 INT in the last six games. The big difference is that Romo doesn’t get rattled by pressure anymore. That has caused problems for the Eagles. When they blitz, they can normally create havoc. It just hasn’t worked out that way against Romo and the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys O-line has given Romo enough time against the Philadelphia Eagles blitz to find his open receivers. And he has some good ones in budding star WR, Miles Austin and TE Jason Witten. Austin had seven catches for 90 yards last week against the Eagles and is averaging 106.8 yards per game over the last six weeks. Witten is a perennial Pro-Bowler and the Eagles can’t cover even crappy TEs. Add to that the fact that Asante Samuel gambled three times last week and lost twice and I am not confident.

The Eagles LBs are a mess right now. Will Witherspoon is their only LB who doesn’t have a major deficiency. Jeremiah Trotter and Chris Gocong are good run-stoppers, but terrible in pass coverage. Akeem Jordan and Moise Fokou are better in pass coverage, but a little too light to be effective run-stoppers. This is not a good situation.

The Dallas Cowboys offense is ranked 2nd overall because they have a perfect balance between the run (7th) and the pass (6th). Andy should take notes.

Last week Dallas Cowboys runningbacks Marion Barber and Felix Jones each had 91 yards rushing, in the Philadelphia Eagles worst performance stopping the run all season. If they can’t find a way to slow down the Cowboys running attack, this game will look just like the 24-0 blowout. I expect them to use the beefier linebackers, Trotter and Gocong, more often in this game.

Jackson led the NFL in punt return average (15.2), but he has that groin injury and has been held in check by the Cowboys. Patrick Crayton is also a dangerous return man for the Cowboys, but the Eagles coverage teams have done well against him. The Cowboys kicking game kept the Eagles pinned deep in their own zone last game with good punts and four touchbacks in five attempts.

Normally you would assume Andy Reid’s 7-0 record in his first playoff game each year would give him the edge in a coaching matchup, but he just got outcoached by Wade Philips last week. Think about that for a second. I have and now I’m depressed. This might be the best team that Philips has ever coached and his best chance to get the first postseason win of his career. Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott had a brain fart last week in calling off the blitz when the Dallas Cowboys running attack got big yardage early against the blitz. Jim Johnson never would have backed off.

I’m not looking at any trends in this game except the one that shows me that the Dallas Cowboys have handled the Eagles this season. I just don’t see the Philadelphia Eagles changing the previous outcomes unless they play a near perfect game and the Cowboys make a few mistakes. Losing to the Dallas Cowboys three times in a season and ending their playoff win drought is my worst nightmare. Or more accurately, having to deal with despicable Dallas Cowboys fans if they win this game - could be my worst nightmare.

They say that on any given Sunday, any team can beat another. Too bad for the Philadelphia Eagles, this game is on Saturday night.  Dallas Cowboys 27 - Philadelphia Eagles 20.

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